A PROJECT BY
READ THE
WHITE
PAPER
SHAPING HORIZONS
IN FUTURE TELECOMMUNICATIONS
WHICH IS THE AIM
READ THE
WHITE
PAPER
Outline the different possible evolutionary scenarios of the European telecommunications ecosystem and identify the factors and choises that could influence its realisation, so as to help the players in this transformation process and decision makers to make informed choices.
THE OBJECTIVE OF THE PROJECT WITHIN GRAND CHALLENGE
podcasts and youtube videos
SLOW EVOLUTION
WITH TELCO
COMMODITIZATION
16
FULL INFRASTRUCTURE SEPARATION AND SHARED PLATFORMS
Co-creation workshop
75
Descriptive
variables
MEGATRENDS
SCENARIO D
TOWARD SINGLE EUROPEAN MARKET AND SERVICE PLATFORMS
TRENDS
Regulations
SCENARIO B
45
Market
structure
4
Qualitative interviews with experts
Ecosystem
protection
PREFERABLE SCENARIOS
DIVE INTO SCENARIOS
Technological
innovations
81
DEEP INTO THE FOUR SCENARIOS
analysis of reports,
news and accademic papers
A foresight approach: the futures cone of European Telco
THE RISE OF INFRASTRUCTURE PROVIDERS AND NEW PLATFORMS
2025
Scroll down
to learn more
38
SCENARIO C
2040
SCENARIO A
SECTION 2
FROM MEGATRENDS TO FOUR POSSIBLE SCENARIOS
SECTION 1
THE ARCHITECTURE OF THE ECOSYSTEM
LEARN THE
EVOLUTION
A FORESIGHT
APPROACH
VISUALIZE THE CHANGE
The old linear value chain
AN OBSOLETE MODEL
DISTINCTIVE
FACTORS
The nowadays ecosystem of European Telco
ARCHETYPES
OVERVIEW
SECTION 2 - THE STUDY
ECONOMIC
VALUE
A COMPLEX SYSTEM
DIGITAL SERVICE APPLICATION
CONNECTIVITY
SERVICE
ENABLING TECHNOLOGY
SERVICE
NETWORK
PROVISIONING
NETWORK
FUNCTION & INTEGRATION
WIRELESS NETWORK
INFRASTRUCTURE
IT
INFRASTRUCTURE
WIRED NETWORK
INFRASTRUCTURE
BACKBONE
INFRASTRUCTURE
switch to
ECOSYSTEM VALUE
ARCHITECTURE
RELATIONSHIPS NETWORK
CONSUMERS
ENTERPRISES
SHIFT FROM CONNECTIVITY SERVICES TO ADVANCED SERVICES
INTRODUCTION OF PLATFORM-BASED MODELS
THE ARCHITECTURE
DISTINCTIVE FACTORS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS MODEL
ENTRY OF NEW PLAYERS
FROM OTHER INDUSTRIES
CRISIS OF THE VERTICALLY
INTEGRATED APPROACH
COMPLEX RELATIONSHIPS AMONG STAKEHOLDERS
Archetypal actors overview
TECHNOLOGICAL
INNOVATIONS
D
A
B
SCENARIO
MARKET
STRUCTURE
Select a scenario
to learn more
ECOSYSTEM
PROTECTION
C
REGULATIONS
Slow evolutionwith telco commoditization
Innovation not driven
by European actors
Lack of a European
single market
Lack of a single European market
Fragmented regulation that is not favourable to the European ecosystem
A
High competition
between actors
Fragmented
regulation
Technological innovations led by international Hyperscalers
European players almost pure spectators of innovation
Network Platforms are closed and non-interoperable
Extreme competition between actors
Commoditization of connectivity
Difficulties in sustaining investments in
infrastructure
KEY MESSAGE
SCENARIO
Ease of market entry by non-European players
Exploitation of the weakness of European players to impose their own business models
DETAILS
OVERVIEW
SECTION 1THE ARCHITECTURE
OF THE ECOSYSTEM
The European telecommunications ecosystem is evolving from a linear value chain into a complex network of interconnected actors, processes, and technologies. This analytical view explores how infrastructures, services, and platforms interact across functional layers, highlighting relationships, value flows, and emerging standards that shape the current state of the ecosystem and its possible evolution.
THE STUDY
THE ECOSYSTEM
HOME
SECTION 2FROM MEGATRENDS
TO FOUR POSSIBLE SCENARIOS
This section shows how key megatrends combine to generate four alternative future scenarios for the European telecommunications ecosystem by 2040, offering a clear framework to explore uncertainties, strategic options,
and potential outcomes.
Market consolidation
through M&A
New network platforms
and digital services
co-managed by operators and big technology players
Integrated service offer through fixed-mobile and satellite convergence
Operator consolidation creating pan-European, vertically integrated players
Ability to support
grater investments
Creation of the European single market
Definition of a European industrial strategy
Relaxation of
antitrust rules
Increased European competitiveness in digital services and network infrastructures
EU telecom market structure aligned with US and China
Co-management of
network platforms
B
Creation of the
European single market
Increased competitiveness
of the ecosystem
Towards single European market and service platforms
Increasing European
technological independence
M&A + Network
separations
Creation of a
European Cloud and
AI Consortium
The rise of infrastructure providers
and new platforms
Creation of a Cloud-native network platform
Adoption of NaaS to enable the development of advanced digital services
Relaxation
of regulation
Market consolidation through M&A and network/service separations
Creation of NetCo and ServCo in a pan-European perspective
C
Industry regulation allowing both consolidation of players and network separations
Strong support for the creation of the European consortium of Cloud and AI
Increasing European technological independence
Reduced gap with US and China in a more collaborative ecosystem
Creation of a Cloud-native network platform,
open and interoperable
Restructuring of existing infrastructures to offer new services
Full infrastructure separation and shared platforms
Network
separations
Regulation of wholesale mechanisms
Strong support for the creation of the European consortium of Cloud and AI
Creation of a
European Cloud and
AI Consortium
D
Regulation of the
wholesale mechanism
Structural separation between
NetCo and ServCo
Increased specialisation of actors in infrastructures
or services
Supporting
ecosystemprotection
Strong support for the protection of the “new and different” European ecosystem
Specialization and cooperation of European actors in a more diversified ecosystem
Data Visualization developed within the framework of RESTART Program:
RESearch and innovation on future Telecommunications systems and networks, to make Italy more smARTRESTART is a national research and innovation program focused on the evolution of telecommunications systems and networks, addressing key challenges related to digital infrastructures, connectivity, resilience, sustainability, and security.
The program promotes collaboration between universities, research centers, industry, and public stakeholders, supporting the development of advanced technologies for future communication ecosystems.
Copyright ©2025 RESTART - All Rights Reserved.
CREDITS
Edoardo Meraviglia, Researcher – Digital Innovation Observatories
Mattia Magnaghi, Researcher – Digital Innovation Observatories
Antonio Capone, Scientific Director – RESTART
Luca Dozio, Director – Digital Innovation Observatories
Marta Valsecchi, Chief Operating Officer – Digital Innovation Observatories
Claudio Conti, Director – Digital Innovation Observatories
Luca Dell'Anna, Senior Advisor – Digital Innovation Observatories
Irene Rinaldi, Researcher – Digital Innovation Observatories
Nicola Blefari Melazzi, President – RESTART
Design and Data Visualization: Bianco Tangerine
Market size 2024:
€ 139 bn
Market size 2024:
€ 56 bn
Market size 2024: € 1142 bn
CAGR 2025-2030:
-0,03%
CAGR 2025-2030:
6,87%
Market size 2024:
€ 20 bn
CAGR 2025-2030:
-0,65%
CAGR 2025-2030: 8,03%
Market size 2024:
€ 306 bn
Market size 2024:
€ 84 bn
CAGR 2025-2030:
6,80%
CAGR 2025-2030:
6,69%
Market size 2024:
€ 329 bn
Market size 2024:
€ 105 bn
Click a button to view the economic value
Market size 2024:
€ 103 bn
CAGR 2025-2030:
14,16%
CAGR 2025-2030:
6,79%
CAGR 2025-2030:
1,41%